Ukraine’s recent securing of a $61 billion aid package from the U.S. marks a significant milestone in its ongoing struggle against Russian aggression. However, as the future of aid remains uncertain, difficult questions are being raised about the feasibility of Ukraine achieving a clear “victory” against Russia.
Analysts emphasize the need for a “shared” vision of victory or a potential cease-fire, highlighting the complexities of the conflict and the shifting dynamics on the ground. While the aid package provides much-needed resources for Ukraine’s military and humanitarian efforts, achieving a definitive victory in the near term seems unlikely.
Andrius Tursa, an advisor at consultancy firm Teneo, points out the perils of Kyiv’s dependence on U.S. military aid and the lack of a common vision between Ukraine and its allies regarding what constitutes a victory.
Discussions about alternative settlement options acceptable to Kyiv may gain traction in 2024, especially as the Ukrainian population becomes more open to considering territorial concessions in exchange for peace. However, Kyiv remains steadfast in its goal to liberate all territories occupied since 2014, including Crimea and four Ukrainian regions annexed by Russia in 2022.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has staked his authority on winning in Ukraine, making it unlikely for Russia to voluntarily withdraw its troops. This is particularly evident in eastern Ukraine, where pro-Russian separatists have supported Russian forces for over a decade.
To map out a realistic path to victory, analysts stress the need for an honest conversation between allies and Ukraine. Oleksandr Musiyenko, a Kyiv-based military expert, emphasizes the importance of unity with Western partners and honesty with the Ukrainian people about the challenges ahead.
While there is currently little appetite in Ukraine’s leadership to discuss an end to the war that doesn’t involve outright victory, Musiyenko believes that honesty about the situation is crucial. He suggests that a potential scenario could involve a prolonged cease-fire, similar to the situation between Eastern and Western Germany before their reunification in 1990.
As Ukraine continues its struggle against Russian aggression, the path to victory remains fraught with challenges. However, with continued support from allies and a shared vision of peace and stability, Ukraine can hope to eventually achieve a lasting victory and secure a peaceful future for its people.