On November 5th, Americans will cast their votes to determine their next president. This election cycle may seem familiar, as the main contenders are the same as those in 2020. Joe Biden, the current president, faced little opposition in securing the Democratic nomination. His predecessor, Donald Trump, easily emerged victorious from a crowded field in the Republican primary. Notably, this will be the first rematch election in nearly seven decades.
Following his loss in the previous election, Donald Trump’s supporters made efforts to overturn the result. He now faces federal charges related to his alleged involvement in that endeavor, as well as three other criminal cases. Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s presidency has been marked by significant challenges, including high inflation and the passage of substantial industrial-policy legislation. Additionally, his administration has dealt with ongoing turmoil in regions such as Afghanistan, Ukraine, and the Middle East.
Both candidates are facing low levels of popularity, making the upcoming election less of a popularity contest and more of a referendum on which candidate voters perceive as the lesser of two unfavorable options.
The experts are closely monitoring the election race, providing the latest polling data. However, it’s important to note that pre-election polls have limited predictive power for the final outcome until late summer in an election year.
Key dates
The election is still many months away, but with the two candidates now in effect decided, the campaign can begin in earnest.
Jul 15th
Republican National Convention. Typically a four-day pageant for the party’s chosen nominee, the party will formally select a presidential and vice-presidential candidate in Milwaukee.
Aug 19th
Democratic National Convention. Similar to the Republican convention a month earlier, the Democrats will formally nominate Mr Biden as their presidential candidate in Chicago.
Sep 16th
First presidential debate. The two main candidates are supposed to meet for three of these over the next month, hashing out important issues (or at least trading insults) for 90 minutes each time. Their vice-presidential candidates will also debate once.
Nov 5th
Election day. Polls open on a Tuesday in early November, though early voting and mail-in ballot initiatives will mean many Americans will have already voted. Counting ballots will go on for weeks in some states.
Jan 6th 2025
Results certification. Once all votes are counted, the results must be certified by Congress. Normally a pro-forma event, in 2021 Mr Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol building to stop the certification. He is on trial for his alleged role in the attack.
Jan 20th 2025
Inauguration. The new (well, newly re-elected) president will be sworn into office for his second term on the steps of the Capitol building in Washington, DC.
The Candidates
President Joe Biden
Joe Biden, now 81 years old, is poised to become the oldest major-party presidential candidate in history, surpassing his own record set in the 2020 election. A seasoned politician, Biden began his political career by winning a Senate seat at the young age of 30, a position he held for over thirty years. Despite unsuccessful presidential bids in 1988 and 2008, Biden’s political journey led him to serve as Barack Obama’s vice president.
Often seen as a centrist within the Democratic Party, Biden has surprised some by advocating for expanding the role of the state and supporting labor unions during his time in office. He has also taken a strong stance on the international stage, leading efforts to form a coalition in support of Ukraine against Russia’s invasion.
While Biden pledges to “finish the job” if re-elected, many voters are concerned about his age, questioning whether the demands of the presidency may take a toll on his health and stamina.
Former President Donald Trump
Donald Trump’s unconventional campaign comes on the heels of his eventful term as the 45th president of the United States, which ended shortly after a violent attack on the Capitol by his supporters. Allegations of his involvement in instigating the attack and broader attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election have resulted in two criminal indictments, one in federal court and the other in Georgia state court. Additionally, he faces two other indictments, comprising a total of 91 felony charges. Despite these legal challenges, the 77-year-old vehemently denies any wrongdoing.
Trump, a self-proclaimed billionaire, amassed and subsequently lost a substantial portion of his wealth in the real estate industry before transitioning to a career as a reality TV personality. In his current campaign, he has returned to familiar themes from his previous political endeavors, such as advocating for building a border wall and decrying what he terms “left-wing gender insanity.” However, he has also added new grievances, particularly against the lawyers prosecuting his cases and the judges overseeing them.